China trade backer says support for bill fading

WASHINGTON -- Unless the China trade bill comes up for a vote by May, it could be delayed until next year, putting it at serious risk, the measure's Democratic vote counter in the House predicted yesterday.

The trade advocate, Rep. Robert Matsui, D-Calif., said support for granting China permanent normal trading privileges was eroding among House Democrats as labor unions increased their opposition to the bill.

"We will have a vote, but it may not be this year," Matsui said in an interview, underscoring his remarks on Monday at a trade forum.

House Democrats and administration officials said Matsui's comments were intended to pressure Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois to schedule a floor vote before the Memorial Day recess, when members of Congress return to their districts and could be subject to more intense lobbying.

House Republican leaders have sent mixed signals about when the bill would be brought to a vote, at first agreeing to late May but then suggesting that June was more likely.

Passage is virtually assured in the trade-friendly Senate, although some Democrats may want the political cover of a separate bill that enhances military cooperation between the United States and Taiwan.

Sen. Trent Lott, the majority leader, has not scheduled a vote on the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act in the Senate, saying he does not want to worsen regional tensions.

The House passed the Taiwan security bill last month, with many Democrats joining in the lopsided vote as a means of showing support for a robust defense of Taiwan. Some House Democrats are weighing whether they now may be able to balance that vote with one for legislation that would reward China with the trade privileges.

The administration's effort to have Congress surrender its annual vote on China trade faces a much tougher fight in the House. Many legislators oppose rewarding Beijing at a time when opponents criticize China's record on human rights, job conditions for workers and environmental standards.

Supporters want a vote by Memorial Day for two reasons. First, they want to avoid politicizing the vote further by distancing it from the parties' nominating conventions in August. Second, the regular annual renewal of China's trading status comes up on June 3, meaning that a vote in June would give Congress three choices, an outright no, annual renewal or permanent privileges.

That would present a confusing array of choices to Congress, and supporters fear that Congress could take the easy way out, choosing the annual extension.